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ESO sub down turn might have bottomed out

Curadh de na Fhiaigh
Solo
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  • GW2: soldenal.1370
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Posted On: 07/19/2014 at 02:25 PM
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I am using two indicators :D.

 

The first one is the number of Gaiscioch members currently playing.  The number has been steadily decreasing since launch and it seems to be kinda stable now at around 545 playing.  Which is still a big number but it was only about 40% of total members playing at launch.

 

The number of reddit/r/elderscrollsonline subscribers.  This one didn't decrease quite as sharper as the number of our members playing ESO.  Because the Gaiscioch number-playing is quite an accurate number of guild members playing, you have to check-in every week to be counted.  Whereas the ESO subreddit sub number is much less so, because you have to actually unsub from it to not be counted.  But the trend still kinda hold.  I see the number bottoming out towards around 40,000, never did it break 40,000, and now climb back to > 40,100.

 

So I am venturing a prediction that both the ESO subs and numbers of Gaiscioch members playing might have bottomed out around this time (07/18/2014) and they might actually go up from here.

 

 

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Taoiseach de na Arach Glas
Foghladha
Taoiseach de na Arach Glas
  • GW2: Foghladha.2506
  • ESO: @Foley
Replied On: 07/19/2014 at 03:59 PM PDT
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As I mentioned in our meeting and newsletter. I expected this, this is standard per any game we launch into. Rift went from over 2400 to 760 in the first 3 months then came back to over 3000 a year later. There is a period in any games life where players try it out and decide whether it is for them or not. The second surge comes when the game drops in price. These surges typically last a few months and when things normalize we typically start our growth pattern. 

No game is for everybody. Every game shrinks before rising to it's glory. I happen to remember back when WoW launched we lost a ton of people only to find them back again 2 months later. The key is whether the game is fun for YOU. Population will settle and begin to grow once again. I am certain.

"It's not the loot and accolades you walk away with, it's the memories and friendships that you cherish forever." - Foghladha
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Laoch de na Iolair Buí
Sekkerhund
Laoch de na Iolair Buí
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  • ESO: @Sekkerhund
Replied On: 07/19/2014 at 04:04 PM PDT
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Keep in mind that a lot of us playing ESO also play GW2, therefore we do use the website.  Its true that the website does have a secondary check of participation claims, however, which will catch most of those who have canceled ESO but still use the website, however if they click that blue Check-In button, then will still be counted as active in ESO, even if they are actually not subscribed to it.

There are also other factors, which involve not having a guild identity in ESO right now.  Other than people typing "GSCH" in Cryodiil zone chat for invites, no one has a clue that Gaiscioch is active, or even exists, in ESO right now... well unless they come to the website.  Hopefully the new guild identity system will help address that, then we might see an increase in membership numbers, since GSCH builds using passive recruiting, ie reputation leading to membership requests, rather than active recruiting using advertisements.

TL;DR  Right now the Command Center is a good indicator of Family attrition, but its translation to overall game attrition is somewhat questionable.  Come next month, it will cease to be an accurate overall game attrition measurement, period.



» Edited on: 2014-07-19 16:07:26

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Laoch de na Iolair Buí
Sekkerhund
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Replied On: 07/19/2014 at 04:11 PM PDT
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Just saw what Fog posted.  Yea, while I'd typically say that games differ enough that you can't use a single past game as an indicator of how another game will rebound... based on the Quakecon panel that I watched yesterday, I think its safe to say that Elder Scrolls Online will indeed rebound, just as RIFT did.  They just need to knuckle down and get these client and networking peformance issues fixed ASAP.



» Edited on: 2014-07-19 16:12:21

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Ban Finsceal de na Iolair
Morigana
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Replied On: 07/19/2014 at 07:12 PM PDT

I watched the video and if they put in what they have "in the works" and get it close to "right" - ESO will rebound and end up to be a great place to hang out.   Attempting to do Spellcrafting and be involved in the justice system (both as a thief/assassin and as a bounty hunter) will be a major time sink for me.  



» Edited on: 2014-07-19 19:13:52

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Curadh de na Faolchu
Aunvyrae
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Replied On: 07/19/2014 at 09:42 PM PDT
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I have to say that after the watching the panel at Quake Con I'm more excited about up coming changes. There are still quite a few that I would like to be addressed, but I feel that starting up my sub again won't feel like I'm throwing money into the garbage waiting for it to stop stinking. Though I'm still annoyed at how slow they are doing class balances. It really feels like Stamina builds won't even be close to what Magicka builds are now for another 6-8 months.... which is a really really long time for something to be left so sub par in a game.

 

Also, I'm glad they are redoing the Vet levels. I loved my Templar... till I got to the vet ranks and then it became a headache as I watched Sorcs and DK's just plow through content as I struggled to even kill 1-2 mobs.

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Laoch de na Iolair Buí
Sekkerhund
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Replied On: 07/20/2014 at 01:31 PM PDT
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Yea, that's the issue... time.  My biggest issue right now is not being able to function in AvA, my toon gets stuck moving forward and I can't turn it.  I'm pretty sure its a networking issue, it started with that patch on the 7th and got a little better with the "hotfix", but its hard to avoid pools of oil fire when my toon won't stop running forward or turn.  There's supposed to be some "fixes" coming w/patch on 21st, but we'll see.  Even if they do fix that, I still might take a hiatus until the Holidays, though.  I have a lot of other irons in the fire with other games atm.

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Seaimpin de na Ulchabhan
Dirkdaring
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Replied On: 07/20/2014 at 01:57 PM PDT
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take Warhammer as a example  at launch they had around 800k subs,  3 months later they had around 400k subs , a year later they had around 200k subs  , then it continued to drop  until it held at i`d guess 20k players which it kept for awhile but they killed any development patches, bug fixes etc the last year or so  of game .

 

Most games have a drop n subs after the first 3 or 4 months , sometimes they pick up ,  



» Edited on: 2014-07-20 13:59:30

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Ban Lorgaire de na Faolchu
Nokomo
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  • ESO: @Nokomo
Replied On: 07/20/2014 at 03:12 PM PDT
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I am seeing more people come back and resubscribe to the game now that updates are rolling out, critical fixes are being made, and exciting new content is on the horizon.  I believe that Zenimax, as a whole, does care about what the players want to see happen with ESO.  The game's first few steps were shaky, to be sure, but I believe that with time it will stabilize and hopefully grow.  I have friends who ultimately decided that ESO didn't suit their play styles, and I have other friends who have enjoyed the game and say they want to keep playing.

I have noticed that many of you also play GW2.  I have a copy of GW2 and an account, but none of my local friends were playing and so I didn't spend much time with it.  I have been considering jumping in with GW2 in addition to ESO in order to better get to know everyone.  I'm shy and quiet, so it'll take me some time.  In the meantime, I'm having a lot of fun moving through ESO's story and providing components and crafted items for the community. :)

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Ban Finsceal de na Iolair
Morigana
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Replied On: 07/20/2014 at 04:23 PM PDT

Noko - please don't hesitate to jump into GW2 with us - if you already have an account and the game - we have a great time during family events. Just update your profile to include your GW2 ID and request an invite.

I admit that I spend more time in ESO than GW2, but every time I jump into the game with the family I really enjoy it.  The Family makes all the difference.   If you weren't on SOR - just transfer over or start fresh - there is usually someone there to help you and all the Vault credits you earn from one game's family events can be used to request things for either game.

And quiet and shy can go far, I know,  - just don't be afraid!

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Curadh de na Capall Donn
Priecher
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Replied On: 07/21/2014 at 06:17 AM PDT
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It will end up turning around once more updates and systems are in. What is an elders scrolls game without the justice system, the thieves guild, etc.. hopefully in the meantime, people will continue to sub to the game. 

I am waiting for a few more patches and content additions before I resub. I feel like I have been paying to play an incomplete beta myself. 6 months or so and we will see.



» Edited on: 2014-07-21 06:25:17

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Tiarna de na Ulchabhan Dearg
Booie
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Replied On: 07/21/2014 at 01:29 PM PDT
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So I got kicked out off the game very early due to client/computer/rng issues and being my own little obsessive me, I decided to collect active member number on a semi regular basis just because.

According to my numbers, it will continue to drop for a while more, but they are just numbers and could be completely thrown off by any action from Zenimax.  But if they continue on their path of making people rage quit, then my numbers has for a very long time been around 200 before it levels out.

That said, these numbers are only the trend from 1 month after launch until now and could change completely tomorrow all depending on what goes on in the game and how upcoming changes are received.

I personally still hope for an awesome game that I can obsess about, instead of silly numbers and I hope that I can be back soon.



» Edited on: 2014-07-21 13:32:47

"A delayed game is eventually good, a bad game is bad forever" - Shigeru Miyamoto
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Saighdiuir de na Capall
Landrix
Saighdiuir de na Capall
Replied On: 07/21/2014 at 02:48 PM PDT

Thanks for the input about sub numbers and our own version of active members. I've never been active in an MMO with a guild pre-launch and have quit some MMO's soon after launch. The decreasing active members wasn't necessarily discouraging, just something to note, glad to hear it's rather "normal".

Hopefully with the new campaign changes, as well as other implemented features, we'll be able to start recruiting back those lost numbers.

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Ban Lorgaire de na Faolchu
Nokomo
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  • ESO: @Nokomo
Replied On: 07/21/2014 at 06:13 PM PDT
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Morigana,

Thanks for the encouragement.  I'm reinstalling GW2.  I'll probably start over completely from scratch, and I'm pretty sure I need to transfer servers.  Though I'm sure I'll spend more time on ESO than on GW2, I'm very happy to know that I'll be welcome just the same.  :)

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Ban Finsceal de na Iolair
Morigana
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Replied On: 07/23/2014 at 05:32 PM PDT

Yes Noko - just look at events on the calendar and jump in when you can... don't hesitate to introduce yourself and then  you can go back to being your shy self :)  

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Curadh de na Fhiaigh
Solo
Curadh de na Fhiaigh
  • GW2: soldenal.1370
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Replied On: 07/24/2014 at 07:40 PM PDT
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Okay so the two indicators I mentioned in the original post are deviating now.

 

The number of our guild members actively playing ESO went down a little bit to 519 which is still a lot.

 

The number of subscribers to ESO subreddit has grown back a little to 40166, it is slowly trending upwards.

 

I think update 1.3 will probably help the game overall.  It is coming out soon in August.  And the guild identity features will help GSCH grow our ranks.

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